Ngemva kokuhlolwa kwe-African swine fever kanye ne-East African loctue plague, ubhubhane olusha lwe-crown pneumonia oluzayo lukhulisa inkinga yentengo yokudla yomhlaba wonke kanye nokuhlinzekwa kwayo, futhi lungakhuthaza izinguquko ezihlala njalo ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwayo.
Ukwanda kwesibalo sabasebenzi okubangelwa yi-new crown pneumonia, ukuphazamiseka kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka kanye nezinyathelo zokuvala umnotho kuzoba nomthelela omubi ekuhlinzekweni kokudla emhlabeni jikelele. Izenzo zohulumeni abathile zokuvimbela ukuthunyelwa kwezinhlamvu kwamanye amazwe ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nesidingo sasekhaya zingenza isimo sibe sibi kakhulu.
Esifundweni esiku-inthanethi esihlelwe yi-Globalization Think Tank (CCG), uMatthew Kovac, umqondisi omkhulu we-Food Industry Association of Asia (FIA), utshele intatheli evela e-China Business News ukuthi inkinga yesikhashana yochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngezimpahla imikhuba yokuthenga abathengi. Izinguquko zithinte imboni yokupheka yendabuko; ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, izinkampani ezinkulu zokudla zingase zenze ukukhiqizwa okuhlukaniswe ngokwezigaba.
Amazwe ampofu kakhulu athinteke kakhulu
Ngokusho kwedatha ekhishwe muva nje yiBhange Lomhlaba, amazwe angu-50 athinteke kakhulu yibhubhane elisha le-crown pneumonia ahlanganisa isilinganiso esingu-66% sokudla okuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe emhlabeni. Isabelo sisukela ku-38% wezitshalo zokuzilibazisa ezifana nogwayi kuya ku-75% wamafutha ezilwane nemifino, izithelo ezintsha nenyama. Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kokudla okuyisisekelo njengommbila, ukolweni nelayisi nakho kuncike kakhulu kula mazwe.
Amazwe akhiqiza izitshalo eziningi kakhulu nawo abhekene nomthelela omkhulu obangelwa yilolu bhubhane. Isibonelo, iBelgium ingenye yamazwe athumela amazambane amaningi emhlabeni. Ngenxa yokuvinjelwa, iBelgium ayilahlekelwanga nje kuphela ukuthengisa ngenxa yokuvalwa kwezindawo zokudlela zasendaweni, kodwa nokuthengiswa kwamanye amazwe aseYurophu nakho kwamiswa ngenxa yokuvinjelwa. IGhana ingenye yamazwe athumela i-cocoa amaningi kakhulu emhlabeni. Lapho abantu begxila ekuthengeni izinto ezidingekayo esikhundleni setshokolethi ngesikhathi sobhubhane, izwe lalahlekelwa yimakethe yonke yaseYurophu nase-Asia.
Isazi sezomnotho esiphezulu seBhange Lomhlaba uMichele Ruta nabanye bathi embikweni ukuthi uma ukugula kwabasebenzi kanye nesidingo ngesikhathi sokuqhelelana kuzothinta ngokulinganayo ukunikezwa kwemikhiqizo yezolimo edinga abasebenzi abaningi, khona-ke ngemva kokuqubuka kwalesi sifo. Phakathi nekota, ukunikezwa kokudla okuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe emhlabeni wonke kungancishiswa ngo-6% kuya ku-20%, kanti ukunikezwa kokudla okuningi okubalulekile okuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, okuhlanganisa ilayisi, ukolweni namazambane, kungase kwehle ngaphezu kuka-15%.
Ngokusho kokuqapha kwe-European Union University Institute (EUI), i-Global Trade Alert (GTA) kanye neBhange Lomhlaba, kusukela ekupheleni kuka-Ephreli, amazwe nezifunda ezingaphezu kuka-20 abeke uhlobo oluthile lwemikhawulo ekuthunyelweni kokudla ngaphandle. Isibonelo, iRussia neKazakhstan zibeke imikhawulo efanayo yokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kokusanhlamvu, kanti iNdiya neVietnam zibeke imikhawulo efanayo yokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe elayisini. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, amanye amazwe asheshisa ukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe ukuze kugcinwe ukudla. Isibonelo, iPhilippines igcina ilayisi kanti iGibhithe igcina ukolweni.
Njengoba amanani okudla enyuka ngenxa yomthelela wobhubhane olusha lwe-crown pneumonia, uhulumeni angase athambekele ekusebenziseni izinqubomgomo zokuhweba ukuze azinzise amanani asekhaya. Lolu hlobo lokuvikela ukudla lubonakala luyindlela enhle yokunikeza usizo emaqenjini asengozini kakhulu, kodwa ukusetshenziswa ngasikhathi sinye kokungenelela okunjalo ohulumeni abaningi kungabangela ukuba amanani okudla emhlabeni wonke akhuphuke kakhulu, njengoba kwakunjalo ngo-2010-2011. Ngokusho kwezilinganiso zeBhange Lomhlaba, kwikota elandela ukuqubuka okuphelele kwalolu bhubhane, ukwanda kwemikhawulo yokuthumela ngaphandle kuzoholela ekwehleni okujwayelekile kokuhlinzekwa kokudla emhlabeni wonke ngo-40.1%, kuyilapho amanani okudla emhlabeni wonke ezokhuphuka ngesilinganiso esingu-12.9%. Amanani amakhulu ezinhlanzi, ama-oats, imifino kanye nokolweni azokhuphuka ngo-25% noma ngaphezulu.
Le miphumela emibi izothwalwa kakhulu amazwe ampofu kakhulu. Ngokusho kwedatha evela kwi-World Economic Forum, emazweni ampofu kakhulu, ukudla kubalwa u-40%-60% wokusetshenziswa kwawo, okuphindwe ka-5-6 kunomnotho othuthukile. I-Nomura Securities' Food Vulnerability Index ibeka amazwe nezifunda eziyi-110 ngokusekelwe engcupheni yokushintshashintsha okukhulu kwamanani okudla. Imininingwane yakamuva ikhombisa ukuthi cishe wonke amazwe nezifunda ezingama-50 asengozini enkulu yokwenyuka okuqhubekayo kwamanani okudla. Umnotho osathuthuka ohlanganisa cishe izingxenye ezintathu kwezinhlanu zabantu bomhlaba. Phakathi kwawo, amazwe athinteke kakhulu athembele ekuthengweni kokudla afaka phakathi iTajikistan, i-Azerbaijan, iGibhithe, iYemen neCuba. Intengo yokudla emaphakathi kula mazwe izokhuphuka ngo-15% iye ku-25.9%. Ngokuphathelene nokusanhlamvu, izinga lokwenyuka kwamanani emazweni asathuthuka nasathuthuka kakhulu athembele ekuthengweni kokudla lizoba phezulu ku-35.7%.
“Kunezinto eziningi ezibeka izinselelo ohlelweni lokudla lomhlaba wonke. Ngaphezu kobhubhane lwamanje, kukhona nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu nezinye izizathu. Ngicabanga ukuthi kubalulekile ukusebenzisa inhlanganisela yenqubomgomo ehlukahlukene lapho ubhekene nale nselele.” UMqondisi we-International Food Policy Research Institute uJohan Swinnen utshele izintatheli ze-CBN ukuthi kubaluleke kakhulu ukunciphisa ukuncika emthonjeni owodwa wokuthenga. “Lokhu kusho ukuthi uma uthola ingxenye enkulu yokudla okuyisisekelo ezweni elilodwa, lolu chungechunge lokuhlinzeka kanye nokulethwa kusengozini yokusongelwa. Ngakho-ke, kuyindlela engcono yokwakha iphothifoliyo yokutshala imali ukuze uthole evela ezindaweni ezahlukene. “Uthe.”
Indlela yokuhlukanisa uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka
Ngo-Ephreli, izindawo eziningana zokulahlela e-US lapho abasebenzi babeqinisekisile khona amacala aphoqeleka ukuvala. Ngaphezu komthelela oqondile wokwehla ngo-25% kokunikezwa kwengulube, kwaphinde kwabangela imiphumela engaqondile njengokukhathazeka mayelana nesidingo sokudla kommbila. I-"World Agricultural Supply and Demand Forecast Report" yakamuva ekhishwe yi-US Department of Agriculture ikhombisa ukuthi inani lokudla okusetshenzisiwe ngo-2019-2020 lingabalelwa cishe ku-46% wesidingo sommbila wasekhaya e-United States.
"Ukuvalwa kwefektri okubangelwe ubhubhane olusha lwe-crown pneumonia kuyinselele enkulu. Uma ivaliwe izinsuku ezimbalwa kuphela, ifektri ingalawula ukulahlekelwa kwayo. Kodwa-ke, ukumiswa kwesikhathi eside kokukhiqiza akugcini nje ngokwenza abaprosesa bangabi nandaba, kodwa futhi kwenza abaphakeli babo babe yisiphithiphithi." Kusho uChristine McCracken, umhlaziyi omkhulu embonini yamaprotheni ezilwane yaseRabobank.
Ukuqubuka okungazelelwe kwe-new crown pneumonia kube nemiphumela eminingi eyinkimbinkimbi ochungechungeni lokunikezwa kokudla emhlabeni jikelele. Kusukela ekusebenzeni kwezimboni zenyama e-United States kuya ekuqoqweni kwezithelo nemifino eNdiya, imikhawulo yokuhamba ngaphesheya kwemingcele nayo iphazamise umjikelezo wokukhiqiza wesizini ojwayelekile wabalimi. Ngokusho kwe-The Economist, i-United States ne-Europe zidinga abasebenzi abangaphezu kwesigidi abavela eMexico, eNyakatho Afrika naseMpumalanga Yurophu minyaka yonke ukuze baphathe isivuno, kodwa manje inkinga yokuntuleka kwabasebenzi iya ngokuya isobala.
Njengoba kuba nzima kakhulu ngemikhiqizo yezolimo ukuthi ithuthwe iye ezitshalweni zokucubungula kanye nasezimakethe, inani elikhulu lamapulazi kufanele lilahle noma libhubhise ubisi nokudla okusha okungenakuthunyelelwa ezitshalweni zokucubungula. I-Agricultural Products Marketing Association (PMA), iqembu lokuhweba embonini e-United States, lithe izithelo nemifino emisha engaphezu kwezigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezi-5 zamaRandi ichithekile, kanti ezinye izimboni zobisi zichithe izinkulungwane zamagalani obisi.
Enye yezinkampani ezinkulu kakhulu zokudla neziphuzo emhlabeni, iphini likamongameli omkhulu we-Unilever R&D uCarla Hilhorst, utshele izintatheli ze-CBN ukuthi uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka kumele lubonise inala enkulu.
“Kuzodingeka sikhuthaze inala enkulu kanye nokwehlukahlukana, ngoba manje ukusetshenziswa kwethu kanye nokukhiqiza kwethu kuncike kakhulu ekukhetheni okulinganiselwe.” USilhorst uthe, “Kuzo zonke izinto zethu zokusetshenziswa, ingabe kukhona isisekelo sokukhiqiza esisodwa kuphela? Bangaki abahlinzeki abakhona, bakuphi izinto zokusetshenziswa ezikhiqizwayo, futhi ingabe labo lapho izinto zokusetshenziswa ezikhiqizwayo zisengozini enkulu? Kusukela kulezi zinkinga, kusadingeka senze umsebenzi omningi.”
UKovac utshele izintatheli ze-CBN ukuthi esikhathini esifushane, ukwakheka kabusha kochungechunge lokuphakelwa kokudla yisifo esisha se-crown pneumonia kubonakala ekushintsheni okusheshayo kokulethwa kokudla ku-inthanethi, okuye kwathinta kakhulu imboni yokudla neziphuzo yendabuko.
Isibonelo, ukuthengiswa kweMcDonald's yochungechunge lokudla okusheshayo eYurophu kwehle cishe ngo-70%, abathengisi abakhulu bashintshe ukusatshalaliswa, amandla okuhlinzeka ngezitolo ze-inthanethi ze-Amazon akhuphuke ngo-60%, kanti i-Wal-Mart yandise ukuqashwa kwayo ngabantu abangu-150,000.
Ekugcineni, uKovac uthe: “Amabhizinisi angase afune ukukhiqizwa okuhlukaniswe kakhulu esikhathini esizayo. Ibhizinisi elikhulu elinamafektri amaningi linganciphisa ukuncika kwalo okukhethekile efektri ethile. Uma ukukhiqizwa kwakho kugxile eZweni elilodwa, ungase ucabangele ukuhlukahluka, njengabahlinzeki abacebile noma amakhasimende.”
“Ngikholwa wukuthi ijubane lokuzenzakalela kwezinkampani zokucubungula ukudla ezizimisele ukutshala imali lizoshesha. Ngokusobala, ukwanda kokutshalwa kwezimali phakathi nalesi sikhathi kuzoba nomthelela ekusebenzeni kahle, kodwa ngicabanga ukuthi uma ubheka emuva ku-2008 (ukunikezwa okubangelwa yimikhawulo yokuthunyelwa kokudla kwamanye amazwe) Uma kwenzeka inkinga), lezo zinkampani zokudla neziphuzo ezizimisele ukutshala imali kumele ukuthi zibone ukukhula kokuthengisa, noma okungenani kungcono kakhulu kunezinkampani ezingakatshali imali.” UKovac utshele intatheli ye-CBN.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Mashi-06-2021