Ngemuva kokuhlolwa kwe-African swine fever kanye nobhubhane lwesikhonyane saseMpumalanga Afrika, ubhubhane olusha lwenyumoniya oluzolandela lukhulisa intengo yokudla emhlabeni wonke kanye nenkinga yokuhlinzeka, futhi lungase lukhuthaze izinguquko ezihlala njalo ohlelweni lokuhlinzeka.
Ukwanda kwezehlakalo zabasebenzi okubangelwa inyumoniya entsha, ukuphazamiseka kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngempahla kanye nezinyathelo zokuvala umnotho kuzoba nomthelela omubi ekuphakeleni kokudla emhlabeni jikelele.Izenzo zohulumeni ezithile zokukhawulela ukuthengiswa okusanhlamvu kwamanye amazwe ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nesidingo sasekhaya kungase kwenze isimo sibe sibi nakakhulu.
Engqungqutheleni ye-inthanethi ehlelwe yiGlobalization Think Tank (CCG), uMatthew Kovac, umqondisi omkhulu weFood Industry Association of Asia (FIA), utshele intatheli yaseChina Business News ukuthi inkinga yesikhashana yokuthengwa kwempahla ukuthenga kwabathengi. imikhuba.Izinguquko zibe nomthelela embonini yezokudla yendabuko;ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, izinkampani ezinkulu zokudla zingase zenze ukukhiqizwa kwezindawo.
Amazwe ampofu kakhulu ashaywa kakhulu
Ngokwemininingwane esanda kukhishwa yiBhange Lomhlaba, amazwe angama-50 athinteke kakhulu ubhubhane olusha lwenyumoniya enza isilinganiso sama-66% sokuhlinzekwa kokudla okuthunyelwa ngaphandle komhlaba.Isabelo sisuka ku-38% ezitshalweni zokuzilibazisa ezifana nogwayi kuya ku-75% kuwoyela wezilwane nemifino, izithelo ezintsha kanye nenyama.Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ukudla okuyisisekelo okunjengommbila, ukolweni nelayisi nakho kuncike kakhulu kulawa mazwe.
Amazwe akhiqiza isilimo esisodwa esisodwa nawo abhekene nomthelela omubi ngenxa yalolu bhubhane.Isibonelo, iBelgium ingelinye lamazwe ahamba phambili emhlabeni athumela amazambane kwamanye amazwe.Ngenxa yokuvinjwa, iBelgium ayizange ilahlekelwe ukuthengiswa kuphela ngenxa yokuvalwa kwezindawo zokudlela zasendaweni, kodwa ukuthengiswa kwamanye amazwe aseYurophu nakho kwamiswa ngenxa yokuvinjwa.IGhana ingelinye lamazwe ahamba phambili emhlabeni ngokuthumela i-cocoa.Ngenkathi abantu begxile ekuthengeni izidingo esikhundleni sikashokoledi ngesikhathi sodlame, izwe lalahlekelwa yizimakethe zonke zaseYurophu nase-Asia.
Isazi sezomnotho esiphezulu seBhange Lomhlaba uMichele Ruta nabanye basho embikweni ukuthi uma ukugula kwabasebenzi kanye nesidingo ngesikhathi sokuncishiswa komphakathi kuzothinta ngokulinganayo ukuhlinzekwa kwemikhiqizo yezolimo edinga abasebenzi abaningi, bese kuba okukodwa ngemuva kokuqubuka kodlame Phakathi nekota, ukuhlinzekwa kokudla okuthunyelwa ngaphandle komhlaba. kungase kwehle ngo-6% kuye ku-20%, kanti ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ukudla okubalulekile okubalulekile, okuhlanganisa irayisi, ukolweni namazambane, kungase kwehle ngaphezu kuka-15%.
Ngokokuqapha kwe-European Union University Institute (EUI), iGlobal Trade Alert (GTA) kanye neBhange Lomhlaba, kusukela ekupheleni kuka-April, amazwe angaphezu kuka-20 nezifunda abeke imingcele yohlobo oluthile ekuthengisweni kokudla ngaphandle.Isibonelo, iRussia neKazakhstan ibeke imikhawulo ehambisanayo yokuthumela okusanhlamvu, futhi i-India neVietnam ibeke imingcele ehambisanayo yokuthumela ngaphandle kwelayisi.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, amanye amazwe asheshisa ukuthengwa kwamanye amazwe ukuze agcine ukudla.Isibonelo, iPhilippines ibeka irayisi kanti i-Egypt ibeka ukolweni.
Njengoba amanani okudla enyuka ngenxa yomthelela wobhubhane olusha lwenyumoniya, uhulumeni angase athambekele ekusebenziseni izinqubomgomo zezohwebo ukuze azinzise amanani entengo yasekhaya.Lolu hlobo lokuvikela ukudla lubonakala luyindlela enhle yokunikeza usizo emaqenjini asengozini kakhulu, kodwa ukuqaliswa kanyekanye kokungenelela okunjalo ohulumeni abaningi kungase kubangele amanani okudla emhlabeni wonke ukuba anyuke kakhulu, njengoba kwenzeka ngo-2010-2011.Ngokwezilinganiso zeBhange Lomhlaba, ngekota elandela ukuqubuka okuphelele kwalolu bhubhane, ukwenyuka kwemikhawulo yokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kuzoholela ekwehleni okumaphakathi kokuhlinzekwa kokudla okuthunyelwa ngaphandle komhlaba ngama-40.1%, kuyilapho amanani okudla emhlabeni wonke ezonyuka ngesilinganiso esingu-12.9 %.Amanani amakhulu ezinhlanzi, ama-oats, imifino nokolweni azokhuphuka ngo-25% noma ngaphezulu.
Le miphumela engemihle izothwalwa ikakhulukazi amazwe ampofu kakhulu.Ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-World Economic Forum, emazweni ampofu kakhulu, ukudla kubalelwa ku-40% -60% wokusetshenziswa kwabo, okungama-5-6 izikhathi zezomnotho ezithuthukile.I-Nomura Securities' Food Vulnerability Index ilinganisa amazwe nezifunda eziyi-110 ngokusekelwe engcupheni yokuguquguquka okukhulu kwamanani okudla.Idatha yakamuva ibonisa ukuthi cishe wonke amazwe angu-50 nezifunda ezisengozini enkulu yokwenyuka okuqhubekayo kwamanani okudla Umnotho osathuthuka ohlanganisa cishe izingxenye ezintathu kwezinhlanu zabantu bomhlaba.Phakathi kwawo, amazwe athinteke kakhulu athembele ekuthengeni ukudla kwamanye amazwe kubalwa iTajikistan, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Yemen neCuba.Isilinganiso sentengo yokudla kulawa mazwe sizokhuphuka ngo-15% siye ku-25.9%.Mayelana nokusanhlamvu, izinga lokwenyuka kwentengo emazweni asathuthuka nasathuthuka kancane ancike ekuthengisweni kokudla kwamanye amazwe lizoba phezulu ngama-35.7%.
“Ziningi izinto ezibeka izinselelo ohlelweni lokudla emhlabeni jikelele.Ngaphandle kwalolu bhubhane olukhona manje, kukhona nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu nezinye izizathu.Ngicabanga ukuthi kubalulekile ukusebenzisa inhlanganisela yenqubomgomo ehlukahlukene lapho sibhekene nale nselelo.”Umqondisi we-International Food Policy Research Institute u-Johan Swinnen utshele izintatheli ze-CBN ukuthi kubaluleke kakhulu ukunciphisa ukuncika emthonjeni owodwa wokuthenga.“Lokhu kusho ukuthi uma uthola ingxenye enkulu yokudla okuyisisekelo kuphela ezweni elilodwa, lolu chungechunge lokulethwa kwezidingo kanye nokulethwa kusengozini yokusongelwa.Ngakho-ke, kuyisu elingcono lokwakha iphothifoliyo yokutshala imali ukuze uthole ezindaweni ezahlukene."Uthe.
Indlela yokuhlukanisa i-supply chain
Ngo-Ephreli, izindawo zokuhlatshwa eziningana e-US lapho abasebenzi babeqinisekise amacala baphoqeleka ukuthi bavale.Ngaphezu komthelela oqondile wokwehliswa kwengulube ngo-25%, kuphinde kwabangela imithelela engaqondile njengokukhathazeka mayelana nesidingo sokudla kommbila.Umbiko wakamuva othi “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Forecast Report” okhishwe uMnyango Wezolimo wase-US ukhombisa ukuthi inani lokuphakelayo elisetshenziswe ngo-2019-2020 lingase libe cishe ku-46% wesidingo sombila wasekhaya e-United States.
“Ukuvalwa kwemboni okudalwe wubhubhane olusha lwenyumoniya kuyinselelo enkulu.Uma ivalwe izinsuku ezimbalwa kuphela, ifektri ingakwazi ukulawula ukulahlekelwa kwayo.Kodwa-ke, ukumiswa kokukhiqiza isikhathi eside akwenzi amaphrosesa angenzi lutho nje kuphela, kodwa futhi kwenza abahlinzeki bawo babe yisiphithiphithi. ”Kusho uChristine McCracken, umhlaziyi ophezulu embonini yamaprotheni ezilwane eRabobank.
Ukuqubuka kungazelelwe kwe-crown pneumonia kube nochungechunge lwemiphumela eyinkimbinkimbi ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kokudla emhlabeni jikelele.Kusukela ekusebenzeni kwezimboni zenyama e-United States kuya ekuvuneni izithelo nemifino eNdiya, imingcele yokuhamba emngceleni nayo iphazamise umjikelezo ojwayelekile wokukhiqiza wesizini wabalimi.Ngokwe- Economist, i-United States neYurophu idinga izisebenzi ezingaphezu kwesigidi eziyizifiki ezivela eMexico, eNyakatho Afrika naseMpumalanga Yurophu unyaka ngamunye ukuze zisingathe ukuvuna, kodwa manje inkinga yokuntuleka kwezisebenzi iya ngokuya iba sobala.
Njengoba kuba nzima kakhulu ukuthi imikhiqizo yezolimo ithuthwe iye ezimbonini ezilungisayo nezimakethe, inani elikhulu lamapulazi kufanele lilahle noma licekele phansi ubisi nokudla okusha okungenakuthunyelwa ezimbonini ezilungisayo.I-Agricultural Products Marketing Association (PMA), okuyiqembu labahwebi bezimboni e-United States, yathi kuye kwamoshwa imali engaphezu kwezigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezinhlanu zamaRandi ezithelo nemifino, futhi ezinye izimboni zobisi zalahla izinkulungwane zamalitha obisi.
Enye yezinkampani ezinkulu zokudla neziphuzo emhlabeni, iphini likamongameli we-Unilever R&D, uCarla Hilhorst, utshele izintatheli ze-CBN ukuthi i-supply chain kumele ikhombise inala enkulu.
"Kuzofanele sikhuthaze inala enkulu kanye nokuhlukahluka, ngoba manje ukusetshenziswa kwethu nokukhiqiza kuncike kakhulu ekukhetheni okulinganiselwe."USilhorst uthe, “Kuzo zonke izinto zethu zokusetshenziswa, ingabe kunesisekelo esisodwa sokukhiqiza?, Bangaki abahlinzeki abakhona, ziphi izinto zokusetshenziswa ezikhiqizwayo, futhi yilabo lapho izinto zokusetshenziswa zikhiqizwa khona engozini enkulu?Kusukela kulezi zinkinga, kusadingeka senze umsebenzi omningi.”
U-Kovac utshele izintatheli ze-CBN ukuthi esikhathini esifushane, ukubunjwa kabusha kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kokudla ngobhubhane olusha lwe-pneumonia kubonakala ekushintsheni okusheshayo ekulethweni kokudla okuku-inthanethi, okuthinte kakhulu imboni yendabuko yokudla neziphuzo.
Isibonelo, ukuthengiswa komkhiqizo osheshayo we-McDonald's e-Europe kwehle cishe ngo-70%, abathengisi abakhulu baphinde basakaza kabusha, umthamo wokuthengiswa kwe-e-commerce wase-Amazon ukhuphuke ngo-60%, kwathi i-Wal-Mart yenyusa ukuqashwa kwayo ngo-150,000.
Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, u-Kovac uthe: “Amabhizinisi angase afune ukukhiqizwa okuncishisiwe ngokuzayo.Ibhizinisi elikhulu elinamafekthri amaningi linganciphisa ukuncika kwalo okukhethekile efekthri ethile.Uma umkhiqizo wakho ugxile Ezweni elilodwa, ungase ucabangele ukuhlukahluka, njengabahlinzeki abacebile noma amakhasimende.
“Ngikholwa wukuthi kuzonyuka isivinini sokusebenza kwezinkampani ezikhiqiza ukudla ezizimisele ngokutshala imali.Ngokusobala, ukwanda kokutshalwa kwezimali ngalesi sikhathi kuzoba nomthelela ekusebenzeni, kodwa ngicabanga ukuthi uma ubheka emuva ku-2008 (ukunikezwa okubangelwa imingcele yokuthunyelwa kokudla kwamanye amazwe) Esimeni senhlekelele), lezo zinkampani zokudla neziphuzo abazimisele ukutshala imali kumele ngabe babone ukukhula kokuthengisa, noma okungenani okungcono kakhulu kunezinkampani ezingakatshali imali. "U-Kovac utshele intatheli ye-CBN.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Mar-06-2021